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Lokomotiv vs Bunyodkor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 14:00

Lokomotiv

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bunyodkor

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.8%0-23.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.9%1-110.6%1-26.3%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.0%3-15.9%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.1%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 66.7% 1.50 -21.6%

Draw 22.9% 27.8% 3.60 -10.5%

Away win 24.8% 20.0% 5.00 +14.4%

Over 2.5 60.8% 57.8% 1.73 +5.2%

Over 3.5 38.3% 38.6% 2.59 -0.8%

BTTS 60.6% 58.8% 1.70 +3.0%

Home O1.5 53.4% 64.1% 1.56 -16.7%

Away O1.5 34.3% 26.7% 3.75 +28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.6%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv1.8

Bunyodkor1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV · PPG 1.88

BUNYODKOR · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -21.6%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.5%

Bunyodkor (A) 24.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv face Bunyodkor in Uzbekistan - Super League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Bunyodkor 25%, so Lokomotiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lokomotiv and 1.2 for Bunyodkor (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.62 for Bunyodkor. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +55.5%. This match finished 4-1.

Lokomotiv vs Bunyodkor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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