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Deportivo Maipu vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

SM Tucuman

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-19.8%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.6%1-112.6%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.1%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.6%3-13.5%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 38.5% 2.60 +25.8%

Draw 28.4% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

Away win 23.2% 35.1% 2.85 -20.3%

Over 2.5 44.0% 35.7% 2.80 +23.2%

Over 3.5 23.2% 15.4% 6.50 +30.5%

BTTS 48.5% 46.5% 2.15 +4.3%

Home O1.5 41.1% 32.3% 3.10 +27.4%

Away O1.5 21.6% 29.4% 3.40 -15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 172 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 16.6%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maipu1.3

SM Tucuman0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 1.90

SM TUCUMAN · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.90) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maipu (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +25.8%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.1%

SM Tucuman (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maipu face SM Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maipu a 48% chance, the draw 28% and SM Tucuman 23%, so Deportivo Maipu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.8 for SM Tucuman (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maipu are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.20 for SM Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.5%.

Deportivo Maipu vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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