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Ferro Carril vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 22:30

Ferro Carril

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-111.9%0-25.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.5%1-113.3%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.7%2-17.4%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.8%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 47.6% 2.10 -11.0%

Draw 30.1% 35.7% 2.80 -15.7%

Away win 27.5% 26.7% 3.75 +1.9%

Over 2.5 44.0% 34.7% 2.88 +26.7%

Over 3.5 23.2% 16.7% 6.00 +23.5%

BTTS 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

Home O1.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

Away O1.5 22.7% 20.0% 5.00 +8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 172 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.5%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril1.1

Colon Santa Fe0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 1.78

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -11.0%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.7%

Colon Santa Fe (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril face Colon Santa Fe in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Colon Santa Fe 28%, so Ferro Carril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ferro Carril and 0.9 for Colon Santa Fe (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.30 for Colon Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.7%.

Ferro Carril vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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