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Ciudad Bolivar vs All Boys Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 23:00

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

All Boys

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+21.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-18.4%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.1%1-111.2%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-17.5%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-13.3%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 42.6% 2.35 +21.5%

Draw 27.4% 38.5% 2.60 -17.3%

Away win 21.0% 29.0% 3.45 -16.5%

Over 2.5 44.0% 29.9% 3.35 +47.4%

Over 3.5 23.2% 12.5% 8.00 +51.4%

BTTS 47.6% 40.8% 2.45 +16.6%

Home O1.5 41.1% 30.8% 3.25 +33.6%

Away O1.5 18.8% 22.2% 4.50 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 172 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.1%

#2 0–0 15.0%

#3 2–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ciudad Bolivar1.3

All Boys0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.30

ALL BOYS · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.30) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Ciudad Bolivar (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +21.5%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -17.3%

All Boys (A) 21.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciudad Bolivar face All Boys in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciudad Bolivar a 52% chance, the draw 27% and All Boys 21%, so Ciudad Bolivar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ciudad Bolivar and 0.6 for All Boys (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciudad Bolivar are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.50 for All Boys. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +51.4%.

Ciudad Bolivar vs All Boys Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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