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Nueva Chicago vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 21:00

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Agropecuario

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-17.6%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-110.8%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-17.7%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-13.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-11.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 48.8% 2.05 +10.7%

Draw 26.7% 33.9% 2.95 -12.7%

Away win 19.3% 27.8% 3.60 -18.3%

Over 2.5 39.6% 37.0% 2.70 +6.9%

Over 3.5 19.6% 18.2% 5.50 +4.7%

BTTS 46.3% 46.5% 2.15 -0.4%

Home O1.5 45.9% 39.2% 2.55 +17.0%

Away O1.5 18.8% 25.0% 4.00 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 172 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.3%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.8%

#2 0–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 14.1%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nueva Chicago1.4

Agropecuario0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.50

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 0.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

Nueva Chicago (H) 54.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +10.7%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.7%

Agropecuario (A) 19.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nueva Chicago face Agropecuario in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nueva Chicago a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Agropecuario 19%, so Nueva Chicago are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nueva Chicago and 0.5 for Agropecuario (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nueva Chicago are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.60 for Agropecuario. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +17.0%.

Nueva Chicago vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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