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Mushuc Runa vs Orense Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 19:00

Mushuc Runa

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Orense

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.4%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.4%1-112.4%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.1%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 50.0% 2.00 -7.4%

Draw 26.1% 29.9% 3.35 -7.5%

Away win 27.6% 27.4% 3.65 +0.4%

Over 2.5 53.6% 50.0% 2.00 +7.2%

Over 3.5 33.0% 28.6% 3.50 +15.5%

BTTS 55.5% 56.5% 1.77 -1.8%

Home O1.5 46.0% 47.6% 2.10 -3.4%

Away O1.5 36.2% 32.3% 3.10 +12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1✓ 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mushuc Runa1.5

Orense1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 1.60

ORENSE · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Mushuc Runa (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -7.4%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.5%

Orense (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mushuc Runa face Orense in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mushuc Runa a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Orense 28%, so Mushuc Runa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mushuc Runa and 1.1 for Orense (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mushuc Runa are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.22 for Orense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Mushuc Runa vs Orense Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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