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Macara vs Mushuc Runa Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 19 ·Tuesday, July 14, 2026, 21:30

Macara

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mushuc Runa

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-19.3%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.4%1-112.6%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-18.6%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.9%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 50.0% 2.00 -0.6%

Draw 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -6.7%

Away win 23.4% 27.0% 3.70 -8.1%

Over 2.5 46.9% 47.6% 2.10 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.3% 26.3% 3.80 +4.5%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 41.1% 46.5% 2.15 -11.6%

Away O1.5 22.1% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara1.4

Mushuc Runa0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.56

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 0.63

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -0.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.7%

Mushuc Runa (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face Mushuc Runa in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Tuesday, July 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Mushuc Runa 23%, so Macara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Macara and 0.8 for Mushuc Runa (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.63 for Mushuc Runa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.5%.

Macara vs Mushuc Runa Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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