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Guayaquil City vs Manta Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 21:45

Guayaquil City

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Manta

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+14.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.7%0-18.3%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.5%1-110.8%1-22.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-16.9%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.0%3-13.0%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 46.5% 2.15 +14.6%

Draw 27.2% 31.7% 3.15 -8.6%

Away win 19.6% 28.6% 3.50 -18.8%

Over 2.5 39.6% 40.8% 2.45 -3.0%

Over 3.5 19.6% 21.1% 4.75 -4.1%

BTTS 46.3% 48.8% 2.05 -5.1%

Home O1.5 41.1% 40.8% 2.45 +0.7%

Away O1.5 18.8% 27.4% 3.65 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -10.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.3%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.5%

#2 0–0 16.7%

#3 2–0 13.9%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guayaquil City1.3

Manta0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUAYAQUIL CITY · PPG 1.33

MANTA · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Guayaquil City (H) 53.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +14.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -8.6%

Manta (A) 19.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guayaquil City face Manta in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guayaquil City a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Manta 20%, so Guayaquil City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guayaquil City and 0.5 for Manta (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guayaquil City are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.56 for Manta. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.6%.

Guayaquil City vs Manta Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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