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Tecnico U. vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 16:45

Tecnico U.

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aucas

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-111.1%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.2%1-113.3%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-18.0%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 31.7% 3.15 +30.7%

Draw 29.6% 31.3% 3.20 -3.2%

Away win 28.8% 43.9% 2.28 -20.6%

Over 2.5 46.9% 44.4% 2.25 +5.5%

Over 3.5 27.2% 23.8% 4.20 +8.5%

BTTS 48.5% 52.6% 1.90 -7.8%

Home O1.5 37.6% 31.3% 3.20 +20.3%

Away O1.5 31.2% 40.8% 2.45 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -10.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tecnico U.1.2

Aucas1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TECNICO U. · PPG 1.44

AUCAS · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Tecnico U. (H) 41.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +30.7%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.2%

Aucas (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tecnico U. face Aucas in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tecnico U. a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Aucas 29%, so Tecnico U. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tecnico U. and 1.0 for Aucas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tecnico U. are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.44 for Aucas. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.7%.

Tecnico U. vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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