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U. Catolica vs LDU Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, July 15, 2026, 22:00

U. Catolica

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

LDU Quito

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.3%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.4%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.2%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.5%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 40.0% 2.50 +14.5%

Draw 26.9% 29.4% 3.40 -5.1%

Away win 27.3% 37.6% 2.66 -16.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 28.2% 3.55 +1.8%

BTTS 48.5% 57.8% 1.73 -16.1%

Home O1.5 46.0% 41.7% 2.40 +10.4%

Away O1.5 28.0% 39.2% 2.55 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 46% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica1.5

LDU Quito0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.89

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +14.5%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.1%

LDU Quito (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face LDU Quito in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 46% chance, the draw 27% and LDU Quito 27%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for U. Catolica and 0.9 for LDU Quito (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.44 for LDU Quito. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.5%.

U. Catolica vs LDU Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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