Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Libertad vs Tecnico U.

Libertad vs Tecnico U. Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, July 15, 2026, 17:00

Libertad

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tecnico U.

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-112.2%0-26.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.6%1-113.4%1-27.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.0%2-17.4%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 43.1% 2.32 -15.1%

Draw 28.8% 30.8% 3.25 -3.8%

Away win 34.6% 33.3% 3.00 +3.8%

Over 2.5 46.9% 47.6% 2.10 -1.5%

Over 3.5 27.2% 26.3% 3.80 +2.0%

BTTS 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Home O1.5 35.6% 42.0% 2.38 -15.3%

Away O1.5 36.2% 35.1% 2.85 +3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad1.1

Tecnico U.1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD · PPG 1.38

TECNICO U. · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Libertad (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -15.1%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.8%

Tecnico U. (A) 34.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad face Tecnico U. in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Tecnico U. 35%, so Libertad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Libertad and 1.1 for Tecnico U. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.11 for Tecnico U.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.8%.

Libertad vs Tecnico U. Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions