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Aucas vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 19 ·Thursday, July 16, 2026, 21:30

Aucas

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

I. del Valle

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.9%0-27.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.8%1-113.2%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.0%2-17.3%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.2%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 33.3% 3.00 -4.3%

Draw 25.2% 29.9% 3.35 -9.3%

Away win 42.8% 44.2% 2.26 -3.3%

Over 2.5 52.1% 50.0% 2.00 +4.2%

Over 3.5 33.2% 28.2% 3.55 +17.9%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

Away O1.5 37.7% 44.4% 2.25 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aucas1.1

I. del Valle1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AUCAS · PPG 2.11

I. DEL VALLE · PPG 2.67

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.11)

Win probability 1X2

Aucas (H) 31.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.3%

I. del Valle (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aucas face I. del Valle in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, July 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aucas a 32% chance, the draw 25% and I. del Valle 43%, so I. del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Aucas and 1.2 for I. del Valle (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aucas are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 2.67 for I. del Valle. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 0-3.

Aucas vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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