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D. Cuenca vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 19:00

D. Cuenca

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

U. Catolica

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-111.4%0-27.3%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.2%1-113.0%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.8%2-17.4%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.8%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 38.5% 2.60 -2.8%

Draw 27.3% 30.3% 3.30 -5.9%

Away win 35.3% 38.5% 2.60 -8.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 26.0% 3.85 +7.0%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 35.6% 39.2% 2.55 -9.2%

Away O1.5 37.7% 39.2% 2.55 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

H 37% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 0–1 11.4%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Cuenca1.1

U. Catolica1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

D. CUENCA · PPG 1.33

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

D. Cuenca (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -2.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.9%

U. Catolica (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Cuenca face U. Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Cuenca a 37% chance, the draw 27% and U. Catolica 35%, so D. Cuenca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for D. Cuenca and 1.3 for U. Catolica (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Cuenca are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 0-2.

D. Cuenca vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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