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LDU Quito vs Leones Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 21:30

LDU Quito

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leones Norte

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-110.6%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-112.4%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-17.2%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 68.0% 1.47 -32.7%

Draw 30.6% 24.4% 4.10 +25.5%

Away win 23.6% 14.7% 6.80 +36.3%

Over 2.5 39.6% 52.6% 1.90 -24.8%

Over 3.5 19.6% 30.8% 3.25 -21.8%

BTTS 46.6% 51.3% 1.95 -9.1%

Home O1.5 35.6% 61.7% 1.62 -42.3%

Away O1.5 21.6% 21.1% 4.75 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -12.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–0 18.8%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU Quito1.2

Leones Norte0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.67

LEONES NORTE · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=45.8%

Win probability 1X2

LDU Quito (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV -32.7%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +25.5%

Leones Norte (A) 23.6%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU Quito face Leones Norte in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU Quito a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Leones Norte 24%, so LDU Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for LDU Quito and 0.7 for Leones Norte (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU Quito are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.67 for Leones Norte. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.3%.

LDU Quito vs Leones Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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