Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / LDU Quito vs Leones Norte

LDU Quito vs Leones Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 21:30

LDU Quito

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Leones Norte

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-110.6%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-112.4%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-17.2%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 68.0% 1.47 -32.7%

Draw 30.6% 24.4% 4.10 +25.5%

Away win 23.6% 14.7% 6.80 +36.3%

Over 2.5 39.6% 52.6% 1.90 -24.8%

Over 3.5 19.6% 30.8% 3.25 -21.8%

BTTS 46.6% 51.3% 1.95 -9.1%

Home O1.5 35.6% 61.7% 1.62 -42.3%

Away O1.5 21.6% 21.1% 4.75 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–0 18.8%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1✓ 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU Quito1.2

Leones Norte0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.67

LEONES NORTE · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=45.8%

Win probability 1X2

LDU Quito (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV -32.7%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +25.5%

Leones Norte (A) 23.6%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU Quito face Leones Norte in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU Quito a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Leones Norte 24%, so LDU Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for LDU Quito and 0.7 for Leones Norte (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU Quito are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.67 for Leones Norte. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.3%. This match finished 0-1.

LDU Quito vs Leones Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions