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Leones Norte vs D. Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, July 15, 2026, 22:00

Leones Norte

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

D. Cuenca

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-110.7%0-24.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.8%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-17.7%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 42.6% 2.35 +14.7%

Draw 28.3% 32.8% 3.05 -8.2%

Away win 22.9% 31.7% 3.15 -16.7%

Over 2.5 39.6% 40.8% 2.45 -3.0%

Over 3.5 20.4% 21.1% 4.75 -1.9%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 37.7% 37.7% 2.65 -0.1%

Away O1.5 21.6% 30.3% 3.30 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 16.9%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones Norte1.2

D. Cuenca0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES NORTE · PPG 1.89

D. CUENCA · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.89), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Leones Norte (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +14.7%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -8.2%

D. Cuenca (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones Norte face D. Cuenca in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones Norte a 49% chance, the draw 28% and D. Cuenca 23%, so Leones Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Leones Norte and 0.8 for D. Cuenca (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones Norte are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.67 for D. Cuenca. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.7%.

Leones Norte vs D. Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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