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Norrby vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 17:00

Norrby

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

GIF Sundsvall

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.5%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.4%1-110.4%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.1%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 52.6% 1.90 +9.3%

Draw 22.4% 28.2% 3.55 -12.3%

Away win 20.2% 26.3% 3.80 -13.9%

Over 2.5 54.1% 52.6% 1.90 +2.8%

Over 3.5 33.2% 30.3% 3.30 +9.6%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 56.8% 51.8% 1.93 +9.6%

Away O1.5 22.1% 32.3% 3.10 -18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrby1.9

GIF Sundsvall0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRBY · PPG 1.00

GIF SUNDSVALL · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Norrby (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +9.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.3%

GIF Sundsvall (A) 20.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrby face GIF Sundsvall in Sweden on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrby a 57% chance, the draw 22% and GIF Sundsvall 20%, so Norrby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Norrby and 0.8 for GIF Sundsvall (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrby are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for GIF Sundsvall. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Norrby vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden

Match Preview & Prediction

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