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Oddevold vs Varberg BoIS Prediction— Sweden

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 11:00

Oddevold

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Varberg BoIS

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+16.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.5%0-25.7%0-33.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.7%1-110.0%1-28.8%1-35.1%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.7%2-26.8%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.3%3-14.0%3-23.5%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 44.4% 2.25 -7.8%

Draw 23.8% 29.0% 3.45 -10.7%

Away win 35.2% 33.9% 2.95 +3.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 54.6% 1.83 +16.9%

Over 3.5 40.1% 33.3% 3.00 +20.3%

BTTS 62.4% 61.7% 1.62 +1.1%

Home O1.5 46.5% 47.6% 2.10 -2.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 40.8% 2.45 +23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.4%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oddevold1.5

Varberg BoIS1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.29

VARBERG BOIS · PPG 1.83

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.83) strong but model favors Home (P=41.0%)

Win probability 1X2

Oddevold (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -7.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.7%

Varberg BoIS (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oddevold face Varberg BoIS in Sweden on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oddevold a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Varberg BoIS 35%, so Oddevold are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Oddevold and 1.8 for Varberg BoIS (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oddevold are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.83 for Varberg BoIS. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.1%. This match finished 2-4.

Oddevold vs Varberg BoIS Prediction— Sweden

Match Preview & Prediction

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