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United Nordic vs Orebro Prediction— Sweden

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 13:00

United Nordic

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orebro

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.4%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.6%1-110.3%1-25.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.4%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.8%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 52.6% 1.90 +1.5%

Draw 23.0% 27.4% 3.65 -9.6%

Away win 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Over 2.5 60.9% 57.1% 1.75 +6.6%

Over 3.5 37.4% 35.7% 2.80 +4.7%

BTTS 55.5% 62.5% 1.60 -11.2%

Home O1.5 56.8% 55.6% 1.80 +2.2%

Away O1.5 36.2% 36.4% 2.75 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

United Nordic1.9

Orebro1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 2.00

OREBRO · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=53.4%

Win probability 1X2

United Nordic (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +1.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.6%

Orebro (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

United Nordic face Orebro in Sweden on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives United Nordic a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Orebro 24%, so United Nordic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for United Nordic and 1.1 for Orebro (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, United Nordic are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.86 for Orebro. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.5%.

United Nordic vs Orebro Prediction— Sweden

Match Preview & Prediction

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