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Norrkoping vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 11:00

Norrkoping

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sandviken

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.1%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.1%1-110.9%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.5%3-15.8%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 64.5% 1.55 -17.4%

Draw 23.8% 22.7% 4.40 +2.8%

Away win 22.9% 19.2% 5.20 +11.5%

Over 2.5 54.1% 66.7% 1.50 -18.9%

Over 3.5 33.2% 43.5% 2.30 -23.6%

BTTS 55.2% 64.5% 1.55 -14.4%

Home O1.5 53.0% 69.0% 1.45 -23.2%

Away O1.5 24.8% 33.9% 2.95 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.2%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrkoping1.8

Sandviken0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRKOPING · PPG 1.67

SANDVIKEN · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=53.3%

Win probability 1X2

Norrkoping (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.8%

Sandviken (A) 22.9%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrkoping face Sandviken in Sweden on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrkoping a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Sandviken 23%, so Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Norrkoping and 0.9 for Sandviken (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrkoping are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.83 for Sandviken. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.5%.

Norrkoping vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden

Match Preview & Prediction

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