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Varnamo vs Ljungskile Prediction— Sweden

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 13:00

Varnamo

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ljungskile

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-110.2%0-27.8%0-34.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.9%1-112.0%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.6%2-17.1%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.8%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.0% 39.2% 2.55 -23.5%

Draw 25.5% 28.2% 3.55 -5.7%

Away win 44.5% 39.2% 2.55 +13.5%

Over 2.5 54.1% 57.1% 1.75 -5.3%

Over 3.5 33.2% 35.1% 2.85 -5.4%

BTTS 55.5% 64.5% 1.55 -14.0%

Home O1.5 35.7% 46.5% 2.15 -23.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.5%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varnamo1.2

Ljungskile1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VARNAMO · PPG 1.17

LJUNGSKILE · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Varnamo (H) 30.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -23.5%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.7%

Ljungskile (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varnamo face Ljungskile in Sweden on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varnamo a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Ljungskile 45%, so Ljungskile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Varnamo and 1.5 for Ljungskile (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varnamo are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.86 for Ljungskile. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.5%.

Varnamo vs Ljungskile Prediction— Sweden

Match Preview & Prediction

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