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Hammarby vs Kalmar Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 12:00

Hammarby

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kalmar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.2%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.2%1-17.7%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-17.6%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-18.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.3% 71.4% 1.40 -15.6%

Draw 20.5% 20.8% 4.80 -1.0%

Away win 19.2% 14.7% 6.80 +18.3%

Over 2.5 64.0% 67.6% 1.48 -5.3%

Over 3.5 40.8% 45.5% 2.20 -10.2%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 62.5% 73.5% 1.36 -15.0%

Away O1.5 21.2% 28.6% 3.50 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.6%

H 60% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby2.4

Kalmar0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY · PPG 2.17

KALMAR · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby (H) 60.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -15.6%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -1.0%

Kalmar (A) 19.2%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby face Kalmar in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Kalmar 19%, so Hammarby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Hammarby and 0.8 for Kalmar (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.00 for Kalmar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Hammarby vs Kalmar Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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