Today / Sweden - Allsvenskan / Djurgarden vs Halmstad

Djurgarden vs Halmstad Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, July 13, 2026, 17:00

Djurgarden

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Halmstad

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.5%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.4%1-14.9%1-22.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.6%2-17.7%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-18.2%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-015.8%4+-114.2%4+-26.4%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 82.0% 1.22 -20.3%

Draw 16.8% 16.7% 6.00 +0.5%

Away win 17.9% 9.1% 11.00 +58.1%

Over 2.5 68.8% 67.6% 1.48 +1.8%

Over 3.5 49.1% 45.5% 2.20 +8.0%

BTTS 62.3% 52.4% 1.91 +19.0%

Home O1.5 75.9% 78.1% 1.28 -2.9%

Away O1.5 23.7% 20.0% 5.00 +11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 2.7%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob62.3%

H 65% / xG 3.2-0.9 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.6%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 4–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Djurgarden3.2

Halmstad0.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DJURGARDEN · PPG 1.17

HALMSTAD · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.17), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Djurgarden (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -20.3%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +0.5%

Halmstad (A) 17.9%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +58.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Djurgarden face Halmstad in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, July 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Djurgarden a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Halmstad 18%, so Djurgarden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Djurgarden and 0.9 for Halmstad (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Djurgarden are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.20 for Halmstad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +58.1%.

Djurgarden vs Halmstad Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Allsvenskan Predictions