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Malmo FF vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 12:00

Malmo FF

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

IFK Goteborg

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 75.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+31.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.6%0-21.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.1%1-14.8%1-23.7%1-31.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.7%2-17.3%2-25.7%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.7%3-17.4%3-25.7%3-33.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-111.8%4+-29.2%4+-34.8%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 54.1% 1.85 +11.7%

Draw 17.5% 26.3% 3.80 -20.1%

Away win 22.1% 27.0% 3.70 -10.9%

Over 2.5 73.7% 61.7% 1.62 +19.4%

Over 3.5 52.9% 38.5% 2.60 +37.5%

BTTS 69.4% 64.5% 1.55 +7.6%

Home O1.5 75.9% 57.8% 1.73 +31.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 38.5% 2.60 +30.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.4%

H 60% / xG 3.0-1.6 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 7.3%

#3 3–2 5.7%

#4 2–2 5.7%

#5 4–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malmo FF3.0

IFK Goteborg1.6

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MALMO FF · PPG 1.20

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Malmo FF (H) 60.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +11.7%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -20.1%

IFK Goteborg (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malmo FF face IFK Goteborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmo FF a 60% chance, the draw 18% and IFK Goteborg 22%, so Malmo FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Malmo FF and 1.6 for IFK Goteborg (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmo FF are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.33 for IFK Goteborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +55.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Malmo FF vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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