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Lahti vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 12:00

Lahti

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Gnistan

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-111.1%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.6%1-113.3%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-18.0%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.0%3-13.2%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 43.5% 2.30 -9.4%

Draw 29.8% 30.3% 3.30 -1.0%

Away win 30.8% 35.2% 2.84 -12.5%

Over 2.5 45.8% 56.5% 1.77 -18.9%

Over 3.5 27.4% 34.5% 2.90 -12.3%

BTTS 48.5% 63.7% 1.57 -23.9%

Home O1.5 38.9% 47.6% 2.10 -18.3%

Away O1.5 35.9% 41.7% 2.40 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0✓ 12.6%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lahti1.2

Gnistan1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LAHTI · PPG 1.29

GNISTAN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Lahti (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -9.4%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.0%

Gnistan (A) 30.8%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lahti face Gnistan in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lahti a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Gnistan 31%, so Lahti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lahti and 1.1 for Gnistan (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lahti are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Gnistan. This match finished 1-0.

Lahti vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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