Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / TPS vs Oulu

TPS vs Oulu Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Saturday, July 11, 2026

TPS

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oulu

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=45.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-19.7%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-112.9%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.6%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-13.8%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 27.3% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 41.2% — — —

Away O1.5 31.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TPS1.3

Oulu1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TPS · PPG 2.29

OULU · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=45.6%

Win probability 1X2

TPS (H) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Oulu (A) 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TPS face Oulu in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TPS a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Oulu 27%, so TPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for TPS and 1.0 for Oulu (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TPS are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.25 for Oulu.

TPS vs Oulu Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Veikkausliiga Predictions