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VPS vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 16:00

VPS

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

SJK

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 49.5% — a clear edge.

+22.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-14.5%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.9%1-19.3%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.0%3-16.4%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-15.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 49.5% 2.02 +22.8%

Draw 20.8% 28.2% 3.55 -15.7%

Away win 18.4% 31.7% 3.15 -25.2%

Over 2.5 60.8% 61.7% 1.62 -1.5%

Over 3.5 37.2% 40.0% 2.50 -7.0%

BTTS 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

Home O1.5 59.0% 55.6% 1.80 +6.2%

Away O1.5 21.2% 42.0% 2.38 -29.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 61% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VPS2.0

SJK0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VPS · PPG 2.14

SJK · PPG 0.86

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=60.8%

Win probability 1X2

VPS (H) 60.8%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +22.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -15.7%

SJK (A) 18.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -25.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

VPS face SJK in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VPS a 61% chance, the draw 21% and SJK 18%, so VPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for VPS and 0.7 for SJK (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VPS are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.86 for SJK. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.8%.

VPS vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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