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PKKU vs Jazz Pori Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Saturday, July 11, 2026

PKKU

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jazz Pori

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Caution: Away form (2.17) strong but model favors Home (P=52.7%)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.3%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.2%1-111.1%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.7%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 23.2% — — —

Over 2.5 54.6% — — —

Over 3.5 34.7% — — —

BTTS 55.6% — — —

Home O1.5 52.5% — — —

Away O1.5 31.2% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PKKU1.8

Jazz Pori1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PKKU · PPG 1.60

JAZZ PORI · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.17) strong but model favors Home (P=52.7%)

Win probability 1X2

PKKU (H) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jazz Pori (A) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

PKKU face Jazz Pori in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PKKU a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Jazz Pori 23%, so PKKU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for PKKU and 1.0 for Jazz Pori (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PKKU are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.17 for Jazz Pori.

PKKU vs Jazz Pori Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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