Today / Finland - Ykkonen / JJK vs KuPS Ak.

JJK vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

JJK

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

KuPS Ak.

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.3%1-13.0%1-21.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.3%2-15.7%2-23.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-17.2%3-24.7%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-014.3%4+-118.7%4+-212.2%4+-35.3%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 71.4% 1.40 -4.7%

Draw 17.3% 21.7% 4.60 -12.3%

Away win 14.6% 17.2% 5.80 -9.2%

Over 2.5 79.8% 78.1% 1.28 +2.1%

Over 3.5 53.0% 57.8% 1.73 -8.3%

BTTS 65.9% 71.4% 1.40 -7.7%

Home O1.5 77.8% 78.1% 1.28 -0.4%

Away O1.5 38.4% 38.2% 2.62 +0.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob65.9%

H 68% / xG 3.8-1.3 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.2%

#2 4–1 6.9%

#3 2–1 5.7%

#4 3–0 5.5%

#5 4–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JJK3.8

KuPS Ak.1.3

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.8% · O3.5 PROB 53.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JJK · PPG 1.71

KUPS AK. · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.71), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

JJK (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -4.7%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -12.3%

KuPS Ak. (A) 14.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

JJK face KuPS Ak. in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JJK a 68% chance, the draw 17% and KuPS Ak. 15%, so JJK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for JJK and 1.3 for KuPS Ak. (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JJK are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.33 for KuPS Ak.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.3%.

JJK vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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