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Tampere Utd vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 15:30

Tampere Utd

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

SalPa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.0%1-18.1%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-17.4%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-17.5%4+-23.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 57.1% 1.75 +8.8%

Draw 19.5% 27.8% 3.60 -17.9%

Away win 18.3% 26.3% 3.80 -18.3%

Over 2.5 64.0% 65.4% 1.53 -2.1%

Over 3.5 40.3% 44.4% 2.25 -9.3%

BTTS 55.6% 66.7% 1.50 -16.6%

Home O1.5 62.5% 61.7% 1.62 +1.3%

Away O1.5 21.2% 38.2% 2.62 -26.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.6%

H 62% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 9.1%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampere Utd2.3

SalPa0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPERE UTD · PPG 2.17

SALPA · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=62.2%

Win probability 1X2

Tampere Utd (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +8.8%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -17.9%

SalPa (A) 18.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampere Utd face SalPa in Finland - Ykkonen on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampere Utd a 62% chance, the draw 20% and SalPa 18%, so Tampere Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Tampere Utd and 0.8 for SalPa (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampere Utd are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.00 for SalPa. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.3%.

Tampere Utd vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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