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VJS vs OLS Oulu Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

VJS

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDL

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

OLS Oulu

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.5%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.7%1-111.8%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.3%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.9%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 61.7% 1.62 -21.8%

Draw 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -2.2%

Away win 27.0% 25.0% 4.00 +4.8%

Over 2.5 58.5% 71.4% 1.40 -18.1%

Over 3.5 35.5% 52.4% 1.91 -32.2%

BTTS 58.1% 69.4% 1.44 -16.3%

Home O1.5 47.1% 69.4% 1.44 -32.2%

Away O1.5 38.4% 42.0% 2.38 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.1%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VJS1.6

OLS Oulu1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VJS · PPG 1.83

OLS OULU · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

VJS (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -21.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.2%

OLS Oulu (A) 27.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

VJS face OLS Oulu in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VJS a 48% chance, the draw 25% and OLS Oulu 27%, so VJS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for VJS and 1.2 for OLS Oulu (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VJS are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.29 for OLS Oulu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 4-3.

VJS vs OLS Oulu Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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