Today / Finland - Ykkonen / KPV Kokkola vs TPV

KPV Kokkola vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Saturday, July 11, 2026

KPV Kokkola
PPG 0.50 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
TPV
PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-17.6%0-27.0%0-34.3%0-4+3.0%1 1-05.5%1-110.2%1-29.4%1-35.8%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.7%2-16.9%2-26.4%2-33.9%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.7%3-13.1%3-22.9%3-31.8%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 31.6%
Draw 23.7%
Away win 44.7%
Over 2.5 64.0%
Over 3.5 39.9%
BTTS 62.4%
Home O1.5 41.2%
Away O1.5 50.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.4%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%
#2 1–2 9.4%
#3 0–2 7.0%
#4 2–1 6.9%
#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KPV Kokkola1.3
TPV1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KPV KOKKOLA · PPG 0.50

TPV · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.50) > Away POOR (0.17)

Win probability 1X2

KPV Kokkola (H) 31.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
TPV (A) 44.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

KPV Kokkola face TPV in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KPV Kokkola a 32% chance, the draw 24% and TPV 45%, so TPV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for KPV Kokkola and 1.8 for TPV (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KPV Kokkola are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.17 for TPV.

PredictVantage

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