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D. Cuenca vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 19:15

D. Cuenca

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Aucas

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.7%0-25.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.4%1-113.2%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-18.1%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 37.7% 2.65 +1.8%

Draw 28.9% 31.7% 3.15 -5.4%

Away win 32.7% 37.7% 2.65 -13.3%

Over 2.5 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Over 3.5 27.6% 23.8% 4.20 +9.6%

BTTS 48.4% 54.6% 1.83 -11.4%

Home O1.5 37.9% 37.0% 2.70 +2.3%

Away O1.5 35.7% 37.0% 2.70 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.4%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1✓ 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Cuenca1.2

Aucas1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

D. CUENCA · PPG 1.50

AUCAS · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

D. Cuenca (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +1.8%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.4%

Aucas (A) 32.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Cuenca face Aucas in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Cuenca a 38% chance, the draw 29% and Aucas 33%, so D. Cuenca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for D. Cuenca and 1.1 for Aucas (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Cuenca are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Aucas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 0-1.

D. Cuenca vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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