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LDU Quito vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 17:00

LDU Quito

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Libertad

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-16.4%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-110.9%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.2%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 76.9% 1.30 -27.1%

Draw 24.5% 19.6% 5.10 +15.0%

Away win 19.4% 10.3% 9.70 +52.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Over 3.5 29.2% 37.7% 2.65 -13.6%

BTTS 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Home O1.5 52.5% 71.4% 1.40 -26.5%

Away O1.5 21.2% 19.0% 5.25 +6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU Quito1.7

Libertad0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.75

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=56.1%

Win probability 1X2

LDU Quito (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -27.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +15.0%

Libertad (A) 19.4%

ODDS 9.70 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +52.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU Quito face Libertad in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU Quito a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Libertad 19%, so LDU Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for LDU Quito and 0.7 for Libertad (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU Quito are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.67 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.9%.

LDU Quito vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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