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LDU Quito vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 17:00

LDU Quito

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Libertad

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-16.4%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-110.9%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.2%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 76.9% 1.30 -27.1%

Draw 24.5% 19.6% 5.10 +15.0%

Away win 19.4% 10.3% 9.70 +52.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Over 3.5 29.2% 37.7% 2.65 -13.6%

BTTS 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Home O1.5 52.5% 71.4% 1.40 -26.5%

Away O1.5 21.2% 19.0% 5.25 +6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–0✓ 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU Quito1.7

Libertad0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.75

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=56.1%

Win probability 1X2

LDU Quito (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -27.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +15.0%

Libertad (A) 19.4%

ODDS 9.70 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +52.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU Quito face Libertad in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU Quito a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Libertad 19%, so LDU Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for LDU Quito and 0.7 for Libertad (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU Quito are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.67 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.9%. This match finished 0-0.

LDU Quito vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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