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Harju JK vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Harju JK

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paide

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.30) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.9%0-26.2%0-33.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.0%1-111.1%1-28.8%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.0%2-17.9%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.4%3-13.7%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 39.9% — — —

Over 2.5 60.9% — — —

Over 3.5 37.4% — — —

BTTS 62.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.9% — — —

Away O1.5 50.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -11.9%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.4%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harju JK1.4

Paide1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HARJU JK · PPG 1.30

PAIDE · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.30) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Harju JK (H) 35.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paide (A) 39.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harju JK face Paide in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harju JK a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Paide 40%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Harju JK and 1.6 for Paide (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harju JK are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.60 for Paide.

Harju JK vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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