Today / Estonia - Meistriliiga / Harju JK vs Narva Trans

Harju JK vs Narva Trans Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Friday, July 10, 2026

Harju JK

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Narva Trans

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.7%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-18.3%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.2%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-16.9%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 19.2% — — —

Over 2.5 61.3% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 62.5% — — —

Away O1.5 21.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 59% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harju JK2.3

Narva Trans0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HARJU JK · PPG 1.11

NARVA TRANS · PPG 0.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.11) vs P(Home)=59.0%

Win probability 1X2

Harju JK (H) 59.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Narva Trans (A) 19.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harju JK face Narva Trans in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harju JK a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Narva Trans 19%, so Harju JK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Harju JK and 0.8 for Narva Trans (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harju JK are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.11 for Narva Trans.

Harju JK vs Narva Trans Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Meistriliiga Predictions