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Nomme Utd vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

Nomme Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kuressaare

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.1%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.3%1-17.5%1-25.3%1-32.5%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.4%2-19.0%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.1%3-17.2%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-17.7%4+-25.4%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Draw 21.8% 30.3% 3.30 -16.8%

Away win 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.1%

Over 2.5 67.2% 65.4% 1.53 +2.8%

Over 3.5 44.1% 44.4% 2.25 -0.8%

BTTS 63.2% 66.7% 1.50 -5.2%

Home O1.5 62.5% 59.9% 1.67 +4.4%

Away O1.5 38.4% 42.0% 2.38 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 53% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Utd2.4

Kuressaare1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME UTD · PPG 1.00

KURESSAARE · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Utd (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.8%

Kuressaare (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Utd face Kuressaare in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Utd a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Kuressaare 25%, so Nomme Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Nomme Utd and 1.4 for Kuressaare (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Kuressaare. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +43.7%.

Nomme Utd vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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