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Narva Trans vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

Narva Trans

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vaprus

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.4%0-27.8%0-34.3%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.9%1-111.4%1-29.4%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.2%2-16.9%2-25.7%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.7%3-12.8%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 34.5% 2.90 -8.5%

Draw 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%

Away win 45.6% 46.5% 2.15 -2.0%

Over 2.5 60.9% 57.8% 1.73 +5.4%

Over 3.5 37.4% 36.4% 2.75 +2.9%

BTTS 55.5% 63.7% 1.57 -12.9%

Home O1.5 38.2% 40.0% 2.50 -4.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.5%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Narva Trans1.2

Vaprus1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NARVA TRANS · PPG 1.00

VAPRUS · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Narva Trans (H) 29.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.4%

Vaprus (A) 45.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Narva Trans face Vaprus in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Narva Trans a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Vaprus 46%, so Vaprus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Narva Trans and 1.7 for Vaprus (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Narva Trans are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.11 for Vaprus. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.4%.

Narva Trans vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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