Today / Estonia - Meistriliiga / Kuressaare vs Nomme Kalju

Kuressaare vs Nomme Kalju Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 14:00

Kuressaare

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nomme Kalju

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-114.7%0-212.0%0-36.5%0-4+3.9%1 1-07.0%1-111.4%1-29.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-02.7%2-14.4%2-23.6%2-32.0%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.0% 20.8% 4.80 -5.3%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Away win 56.6% 62.5% 1.60 -9.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 61.7% 1.62 -18.7%

Over 3.5 29.0% 40.0% 2.50 -16.5%

BTTS 48.5% 60.6% 1.65 -20.0%

Home O1.5 33.3% 29.4% 3.40 +13.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 63.7% 1.57 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -11.9%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.5%

A 57% / xG 0.8-1.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 0–1 14.7%

#3 0–2 12.0%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare0.8

Nomme Kalju1.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 1.11

NOMME KALJU · PPG 2.11

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs Home AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 19.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -5.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

Nomme Kalju (A) 56.6%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Nomme Kalju in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 19% chance, the draw 24% and Nomme Kalju 57%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Kuressaare and 1.6 for Nomme Kalju (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 2.11 for Nomme Kalju. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.2%.

Kuressaare vs Nomme Kalju Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Meistriliiga Predictions