Today / Estonia - Meistriliiga / Vaprus vs Tammeka

Vaprus vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 11:30

Vaprus

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tammeka

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.6%0-26.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.5%1-112.9%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.4%2-17.9%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.6%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 38.5% 2.60 -4.1%

Draw 27.7% 30.8% 3.25 -6.0%

Away win 35.5% 41.7% 2.40 -14.8%

Over 2.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Over 3.5 29.2% 38.2% 2.62 -14.1%

BTTS 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Home O1.5 37.9% 45.5% 2.20 -16.6%

Away O1.5 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaprus1.2

Tammeka1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VAPRUS · PPG 1.44

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Vaprus (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -4.1%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.0%

Tammeka (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaprus face Tammeka in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaprus a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Tammeka 36%, so Vaprus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vaprus and 1.2 for Tammeka (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaprus are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.43 for Tammeka.

Vaprus vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Meistriliiga Predictions