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Flora vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 16:00

Flora

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Nomme Utd

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.1%0-20.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.3%1-13.8%1-22.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.7%2-16.7%2-23.9%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-17.8%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-014.3%4+-116.8%4+-29.9%4+-33.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 77.5% 1.29 -16.3%

Draw 16.9% 20.0% 5.00 -9.3%

Away win 18.2% 12.5% 8.00 +27.4%

Over 2.5 72.3% 76.9% 1.30 -6.0%

Over 3.5 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

BTTS 63.5% 65.4% 1.53 -2.8%

Home O1.5 76.2% 80.0% 1.25 -4.8%

Away O1.5 36.2% 30.7% 3.26 +18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 65% / xG 3.5-1.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 4–1 6.9%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 3–0 6.7%

#5 4–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora3.5

Nomme Utd1.2

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA · PPG 1.88

NOMME UTD · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Flora (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -16.3%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -9.3%

Nomme Utd (A) 18.2%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora face Nomme Utd in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Nomme Utd 18%, so Flora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Flora and 1.2 for Nomme Utd (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.11 for Nomme Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Flora vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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