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Brommapojkarna vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 14:30

Brommapojkarna

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sirius

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.7%0-27.4%0-35.4%0-4+5.0%1 1-03.9%1-18.7%1-29.5%1-37.0%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.5%2-15.6%2-26.1%2-34.5%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.6% 22.2% 4.50 +6.4%

Draw 20.9% 24.4% 4.10 -8.6%

Away win 54.5% 59.9% 1.67 -9.0%

Over 2.5 66.4% 64.5% 1.55 +2.9%

Over 3.5 42.6% 41.7% 2.40 +2.2%

BTTS 63.0% 65.4% 1.53 -3.6%

Home O1.5 41.2% 35.7% 2.80 +15.4%

Away O1.5 60.5% 64.5% 1.55 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.0%

A 55% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2✓ 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 1–3 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brommapojkarna1.3

Sirius2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BROMMAPOJKARNA · PPG 1.25

SIRIUS · PPG 2.60

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Brommapojkarna (H) 24.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +6.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.6%

Sirius (A) 54.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brommapojkarna face Sirius in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brommapojkarna a 25% chance, the draw 21% and Sirius 55%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Brommapojkarna and 2.2 for Sirius (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.60 for Sirius. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Brommapojkarna vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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