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Vasteras vs Degerfors Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 12:00

Vasteras

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Degerfors

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+28.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.8%0-24.3%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.8%1-110.1%1-27.6%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.5%3-15.2%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.4%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Draw 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -14.1%

Away win 29.6% 29.9% 3.35 -0.5%

Over 2.5 64.0% 50.0% 2.00 +28.0%

Over 3.5 41.7% 28.2% 3.55 +48.0%

BTTS 63.2% 57.1% 1.75 +10.6%

Home O1.5 52.5% 46.5% 2.15 +12.9%

Away O1.5 50.2% 33.9% 2.95 +48.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0✓ 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasteras1.8

Degerfors1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VASTERAS · PPG 0.60

DEGERFORS · PPG 1.25

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.25) strong but model favors Home (P=47.2%)

Win probability 1X2

Vasteras (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -0.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.1%

Degerfors (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasteras face Degerfors in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasteras a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Degerfors 30%, so Vasteras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vasteras and 1.5 for Degerfors (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasteras are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.25 for Degerfors. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +48.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Vasteras vs Degerfors Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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