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Ostersunds vs Landskrona Prediction— Sweden

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 13:00

Ostersunds

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Landskrona

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-110.1%0-26.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.1%1-112.5%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.6%2-17.7%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 47.6% 2.10 -24.8%

Draw 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -4.6%

Away win 37.8% 31.3% 3.20 +21.0%

Over 2.5 51.3% 54.6% 1.83 -6.1%

Over 3.5 29.6% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

BTTS 55.5% 61.7% 1.62 -10.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 50.0% 2.00 -23.0%

Away O1.5 39.0% 38.5% 2.60 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.5%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ostersunds1.2

Landskrona1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTERSUNDS · PPG 1.83

LANDSKRONA · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Ostersunds (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -24.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.6%

Landskrona (A) 37.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ostersunds face Landskrona in Sweden on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ostersunds a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Landskrona 38%, so Landskrona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ostersunds and 1.4 for Landskrona (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ostersunds are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.86 for Landskrona. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Ostersunds vs Landskrona Prediction— Sweden

Match Preview & Prediction

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