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Oster vs Brage Prediction— Sweden

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 15:00

Oster

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brage

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.9%0-24.5%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.5%1-110.1%1-27.8%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.7%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.2%3-15.0%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.2%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

Draw 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -9.6%

Away win 33.7% 33.3% 3.00 +1.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.0% 1.45 -7.3%

Over 3.5 42.3% 47.6% 2.10 -11.2%

BTTS 63.7% 72.5% 1.38 -12.1%

Home O1.5 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Away O1.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.7%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oster1.7

Brage1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTER · PPG 1.86

BRAGE · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Oster (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -6.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.6%

Brage (A) 33.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oster face Brage in Sweden on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oster a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Brage 34%, so Oster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Oster and 1.5 for Brage (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oster are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.43 for Brage. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Oster vs Brage Prediction— Sweden

Match Preview & Prediction

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