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Anyang vs Gwangju Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 10:30

Anyang

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gwangju

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+16.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-12.5%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.0%1-16.5%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.3%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.0%3-17.1%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-014.2%4+-18.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 61.7% 1.62 +16.0%

Draw 18.3% 27.0% 3.70 -19.4%

Away win 10.1% 18.2% 5.50 -26.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 47.6% 2.10 +32.5%

Over 3.5 40.1% 26.3% 3.80 +52.4%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 63.5% 54.1% 1.85 +17.5%

Away O1.5 18.8% 22.2% 4.50 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 69%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 72% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 3–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 4–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anyang2.6

Gwangju0.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ANYANG · PPG 0.88

GWANGJU · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.88) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Anyang (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +16.0%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -19.4%

Gwangju (A) 10.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anyang face Gwangju in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anyang a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Gwangju 10%, so Anyang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Anyang and 0.6 for Gwangju (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anyang are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.25 for Gwangju. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +53.7%.

Anyang vs Gwangju Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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