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Seoul vs Gangwon Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 10:30

Seoul

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Gangwon

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-112.1%0-25.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.7%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.7%2-17.3%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.7%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 42.6% 2.35 -3.9%

Draw 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Away win 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -7.5%

Over 2.5 38.7% 41.7% 2.40 -7.1%

Over 3.5 21.0% 21.1% 4.75 -0.1%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 38.2% 2.62 -5.9%

Away O1.5 21.2% 30.8% 3.25 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.7%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seoul1.1

Gangwon0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SEOUL · PPG 1.86

GANGWON · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Seoul (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -3.9%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.2%

Gangwon (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seoul face Gangwon in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seoul a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Gangwon 28%, so Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Seoul and 0.8 for Gangwon (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seoul are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.75 for Gangwon. This match finished 0-0.

Seoul vs Gangwon Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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