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Gangwon vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 10:30

Gangwon

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gimcheon Sangmu

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-18.2%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.1%1-112.0%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.7%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.3%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 55.6% 1.80 -4.1%

Draw 26.8% 28.2% 3.55 -2.9%

Away win 19.8% 23.8% 4.20 -10.1%

Over 2.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 26.0% 28.2% 3.55 -4.6%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 45.9% 51.8% 1.93 -11.4%

Away O1.5 21.6% 28.2% 3.55 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 2–0✓ 11.8%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gangwon1.5

Gimcheon Sangmu0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GANGWON · PPG 1.63

GIMCHEON SANGMU · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Gangwon (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.1%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.9%

Gimcheon Sangmu (A) 19.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gangwon face Gimcheon Sangmu in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gangwon a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Gimcheon Sangmu 20%, so Gangwon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gangwon and 0.7 for Gimcheon Sangmu (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gangwon are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.25 for Gimcheon Sangmu. This match finished 2-0.

Gangwon vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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