Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan

Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 10:30

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 0.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ulsan

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-110.7%0-27.4%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.1%1-112.6%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.4%2-17.4%2-25.1%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.1%3-12.9%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 40.8% 2.45 -8.4%

Draw 27.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.1%

Away win 35.3% 36.4% 2.75 -2.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 52.6% 1.90 -4.0%

Over 3.5 29.2% 30.8% 3.25 -3.1%

BTTS 55.5% 59.9% 1.67 -7.3%

Home O1.5 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

Away O1.5 39.0% 40.8% 2.45 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.5%

A 35% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daejeon Citizen1.2

Ulsan1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 0.44

ULSAN · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Daejeon Citizen (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -8.4%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.1%

Ulsan (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daejeon Citizen face Ulsan in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daejeon Citizen a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Ulsan 35%, so Daejeon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Daejeon Citizen and 1.4 for Ulsan (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daejeon Citizen are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.75 for Ulsan. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions