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Jeju Utd vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 10:30

Jeju Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-115.1%0-29.8%0-34.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.9%1-112.9%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.2%2-15.5%2-23.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.2%3-11.6%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 37.0% 2.70 -11.7%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 42.9% 39.2% 2.55 +9.4%

Over 2.5 47.4% 47.6% 2.10 -0.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 26.3% 3.80 +5.7%

BTTS 48.4% 55.6% 1.80 -12.9%

Home O1.5 33.3% 37.7% 2.65 -11.8%

Away O1.5 38.4% 39.2% 2.55 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.4%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 15.1%

#4 0–2 9.8%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju Utd0.9

Daejeon Citizen1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UTD · PPG 1.00

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.86

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jeju Utd (H) 29.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -11.7%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 42.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju Utd face Daejeon Citizen in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju Utd a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Daejeon Citizen 43%, so Daejeon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Jeju Utd and 1.3 for Daejeon Citizen (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.86 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.4%.

Jeju Utd vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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