Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Incheon Utd vs Anyang

Incheon Utd vs Anyang Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 10:30

Incheon Utd

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Anyang

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.6%0-26.5%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.2%1-112.4%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-18.0%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.6%3-13.5%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 50.0% 2.00 -20.8%

Draw 25.9% 31.3% 3.20 -10.3%

Away win 34.5% 25.0% 4.00 +38.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 44.4% 2.25 +21.5%

Over 3.5 32.9% 23.8% 4.20 +38.2%

BTTS 55.6% 51.8% 1.93 +7.3%

Home O1.5 41.2% 45.5% 2.20 -9.4%

Away O1.5 38.4% 27.0% 3.70 +42.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.6%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 0–1✓ 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon Utd1.3

Anyang1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON UTD · PPG 1.13

ANYANG · PPG 1.63

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Incheon Utd (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -20.8%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.3%

Anyang (A) 34.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +38.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon Utd face Anyang in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon Utd a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Anyang 35%, so Incheon Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Incheon Utd and 1.3 for Anyang (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon Utd are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.63 for Anyang. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +42.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Incheon Utd vs Anyang Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions